According to Syrian researcher Muhsen AlMustafa at the Omran Center for Strategic Studies and Syrian military expert Ismail Ayoub, the task of protecting the presidential palace is distributed among three entities. The first is the Republican Guard, the main force responsible for safeguarding Assad’s palace, established decades ago specifically to ensure his and his regime’s protection. For many years, members of the Republican Guard were carefully selected based on physical fitness, loyalty to the regime, and, in many cases, sectarian affiliation, AlMustafa explained. He noted that “the Republican Guard includes highly trained units,” but he doubts its effective strength given the battlefield realities witnessed in Syria over the past week.

The second is the 4th Armored Division. Although protecting the palace is not its formal mission, this military unit has played a major role for decades in securing the surroundings of Damascus. AlMustafa explained that “the Republican Guard and the 4th Division act as a defensive body for the presidential palace.”

The third is the Special Forces, led by General Suhail al-Hassan. These three units together are responsible for protecting the presidential palace, according to the researcher’s statement to Al-Hurra. However, he added: “It is not known whether these divisions would actually fight if Damascus’s countryside and surrounding areas fall. Where would they fight? In the cities? That depends on the outcome of the battle in Homs being led by the opposition factions.”