Commenting on Lavrov’s statements and their implications, Syrian researcher Muhsen AlMustafa at the Omran Center for Strategic Studies said: “Lavrov does not necessarily mean Syria itself, but the presence in Syria is important for Russia and vital for its pathway into Africa in general and Libya in particular.” AlMustafa told Al-Hurra that “it cannot be said that Russia has lost its bases in Syria until the last Russian soldier leaves, but it seems that the new Syrian administration is exercising extreme caution before making any decision on this matter.”

“Several things should not be forgotten… First, Turkey has provided Russia with assurances about its influence in Syria, in return for not engaging in direct military support for Assad, in addition to political reassurance messages from the Syrian military operations command during the ‘Deterring Aggression’ battle,” AlMustafa said. He continued: “Second, Russia has a signed agreement with the Syrian state represented by the former regime, and there is no information or source indicating that this agreement was suspended after the fall of the regime, meaning it is still in effect on the ground.” At the same time, the Syrian researcher noted that “it may later be amended or canceled, depending on what the new administration sees as serving the country’s interest.”

As for the third element, AlMustafa explained: “Beyond emotions, and despite Russia’s crimes against the Syrian people and its full awareness of them—similar to other actors like Iran—it may be in Syria’s interest to maintain a good relationship with Russia and thus its bases, through re-negotiating a new agreement with it.” He justified this by saying: “It is a permanent member of the UN Security Council (with veto power), and it can be useful in several vital areas necessary for rebuilding the state and possibly the army after the massive destruction it suffered. This could serve as a form of material and moral compensation for the crimes Russia committed in Syria.”