Researcher Muhsen AlMustafa at the Omran Center for Strategic Studies, specializing in military and security affairs, believes that the military cooperation agreement between Syria and Turkey reflects a shift in Ankara’s approach—from supporting factions to forming an institutional partnership with Damascus—giving relations a new direction. He expects the agreement to enhance the Syrian government’s ability to maintain security but rules out its development into a joint defense pact in the near future due to Syria’s fragile legal framework, international reservations (especially concerning Israel), and the sensitivity of Turkey’s position within NATO.

He points out that Turkish support will likely be limited to logistical equipment, armored vehicles, surveillance technologies, and possibly limited air support, which would gradually improve the efficiency of the Syrian army without drastically altering regional power balances. He also stresses that Ankara’s focus on confronting the SDF does not mean sidelining the Sweida issue or Israeli threats, but rather reflects Turkey’s priority of preventing the SDF from imposing a separate reality, while relations with Israel remain constrained by complex regional calculations that Turkey avoids escalating directly.