Muhsen AlMustafa believes that the nature of the proposed security changes in Syria is still unclear, as it has not yet been decided who will lead the new security apparatus if the Military Intelligence and Air Force Intelligence are merged. He points out that the regime will try to streamline the overlapping branches of the two agencies while keeping the non-overlapping ones, but he recalls that previous restructuring attempts failed due to the complexity and deep interconnections within the security apparatus.

He stresses that Russia has greater influence than Iran over the Syrian security services, making it a likely party behind such changes, especially given the existence of four agencies with overlapping, competing roles. In his view, any restructuring could carry a political dimension within the framework of international understandings and fall under Moscow’s attempts to reshape the security system to serve its interests.

He also argues that these changes may aim to obscure the crimes and violations committed by the security branches, but they will not succeed in deceiving international human rights bodies. Instead, they may make accountability more complicated, as international organizations would need to determine which new branch inherits the record of violations, thereby prolonging the accountability process without changing the essence of the existing security structure.