The most important references

European Union Agency for Asylum (EUAA)

Oct 2023

Country of Origin Information - Syria

A report by the European Union Asylum Agency (EUAA) provides information on conscription and military service in Syria. A series of responses were submitted via email, in addition to an interview with the agency. The report also uses a number of previously published research findings:

“Fight or Flight: The Nightmare of Conscription in Syria” and “Syrian Refugees: Selective Return.”

Austrian Red Cross

08\09\2022

Response to inquiries on Syria: Conscientious objection and desertion

Inquiry about Syria

In a report by the Austrian Red Cross and the Austrian Centre for Country of Origin, Asylum and Documentation Research on conscription and military service in Syria, a group of responses were submitted via email to the researcher who prepared the report. The report is available in German. The article "Societal Drain Feeds the Army" was also used as a reference in the report.

A report from @roteskreuzat & ACCORD on Military Conscription in Syria,I submitted answers via e-mail to the researcher who prepared the report on the topic. The report is in German، An article I published with @CarnegieMEC

 "Drain Society, Feed the Military" was also used as a source for the report.

Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs | Dutch MFA

31\5\2022

General report Syria May 2022

Syria is an unsafe country

In a report by the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the data was based on several sources, including studies and research papers published by the Omran Center, including the paper "Chain of Command and Order," which was used as a reference in the report.

Arab Center

18\5\2022

Why did the "Baath State" collapse in Syria?

In a study published by the Arab Center, it discusses the reasons and factors that led the Syrian state to enter its worst existential crisis since its founding in 1920, and how the state, ruled by the Ba'ath Party, abandoned its economic (rentier-distributive) role towards its traditional social support bases (workers, peasants, and rural areas).

The paper "Power Centers in the Regime's Army 2020: The Alawi Safa Approach" was used as a reference in the study.

Human Rights Watch | HRW

15\10\2020

They are targeting life in Idlib

This report presents some information and observations under the headings "The Syrian Military Structure During the Attack on Idlib," "Russia's Involvement in Syrian Military Operations," and "The Individual Responsibility of Russian and Syrian Leaders."

The paper "Power Centers in the Regime's Army 2020: The Alawi Safa Approach" was used as a reference in the report.

Latest statements

Fidelity

19\5\2023

After years of political isolation, Bashar al-Assad is back at the table

Muhsen Al-Mustafa, a researcher at the Omran Center for Strategic Studies and the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy, believes that the countries in the region are in vain hoping to curb drug trafficking by re-establishing ties with Assad. "Now that Assad has discovered how important it is to them to stop that trafficking, he can use it to blackmail them," he said by phone.

"And he will certainly do that, again and again, to see if he can perhaps extract even more commitments."

Syria Direct

17\5\2023

Between Erdogan and Kılıçdaroğlu: What are the features of Turkey's future policy towards Syria?

Mohsen Al-Mustafa, a researcher at the Omran Center for Strategic Studies and a non-resident fellow at the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy, expects Erdogan's current policy to continue if he wins the elections, noting that "voluntary returns may increase due to the economic crisis and the repercussions of the earthquake," he told Syria Direct.

Mustafa believes that Kılıçdaroğlu's talk of withdrawing from Syria is merely an election promise, and does not represent a real political plan. He said, "They make promises for the sake of elections, and when one of them comes to power, he will face reality." He noted that "the army and intelligence will not accept losing these advantages derived from military operations. It is a matter of national security."

The Orient-The Day

6\5\2023

"Believe me, if I could go back to Syria, I would."

Syrian refugees have no faith in the infamous amnesty law announced in April 2022 by Bashar al-Assad, touted as allowing "the opening of a new chapter" with those who had "lost their way," referring to those who have opposed the regime since 2011.

"This decree cannot in any way lay the foundations for the post-conflict phase or contribute to creating a secure environment for the return of refugees and displaced persons as long as the fate of the detainees and the missing remains unknown," denounces Mohsen el-Moustafa, researcher at the Omran Center for Strategic Studies and non-resident fellow at the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy (TIMEP).

THE COUNTRY

30\03\2023

Syrians fear hunger more than bombs

The political factor cannot be ignored in a conflict like the one in Syria, where President Assad "has punished the entire population for rebelling against him 12 years ago," according to Muhsen al-Mustafa, an analyst associated with the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy (TIMEP) think tank in Washington.

DW (Deutsche Welle)

22\02\2023

What next for Syrians who returned home after earthquake?

"Because the returnees are mostly not going back into areas controlled by the Assad regime, they have no fear of pursuit or arrest by government security forces," said Muhsen al-Mustafa, a researcher at the Istanbul-based Omran Center for Strategic Studies.

Local grapes

21\11\2022

The possibility of Turkish escalation raises concerns in eastern Syria.

The possibility of escalation is real, but it is too early to talk about a new military operation in northern Syria.

He pointed out that Türkiye would likely limit itself to air and ground targeting of SDF cadres and Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) leaders.

Al-Istiqlal Newspaper

4\11\2022

Funding the War and Enriching Assad: What Are America's Plans to Disrupt the Syrian Drug Network?

In this context, Mohsen Al-Mustafa, a researcher specializing in military relations at the Omran Center for Strategic Studies, believes that "the role of US intelligence will be limited to identifying individuals and networks involved in drug manufacturing and smuggling across borders."

Local grapes

9\10\2022

Daraa residents are not looking for those who benefit from the assassinations. They are leaving.

Mohsen Mustafa, an assistant researcher at the Omran Center for Strategic Studies and a non-resident fellow at the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy (TIMEP), told Enab Baladi that the targeting operations are limited to three conflicting parties: the opposition, the regime, and ISIS fighters in southern Syria.

He considered the continued targeting of civilians in the governorate to be evidence of a "security failure" on the part of the regime's security forces there.

In terms of benefits and harms, the researcher argued that the regime does not consider human losses as a measure of benefit or harm. Rather, what matters to it is controlling territory and imposing its sovereignty over it, regardless of the number of casualties from any party, including its own forces.

Free

5\10\2022

The Syrian regime's "tactical" projects... Why are the Russians and Maher al-Assad involved?

Mohsen al-Mustafa, an assistant researcher at the Omran Center for Strategic Studies and a fellow at the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy, believes that the "tactical operational projects" the Syrian regime has been frequently announcing are aimed at "maintaining combat readiness, especially given the decline in military operations. Consequently, new recruits must be brought into the battlefield."

Syrian Net

5\9\2022

"Gradual Doses"... What's Behind "Assad's Privileges" for Medical Staff in Syria?

Mohsen Al-Mustafa, an assistant researcher at the Omran Center for Strategic Studies, believes the decree aims to maximize the benefits of these doctors, especially since it is being applied for the first time in the civilian sector. Previously, the decree was only applied to the police sector, where volunteers served for five years to waive their compulsory military service.

Statements

Local grapes

4\9\2022

Syria: What are the implications of ending military detention of medical and engineering students?

Researcher Mohsen Al-Mustafa believes that the Syrian regime is trying to limit the emigration of doctors not only because of a shortage of medical personnel, but also because the regime considers a medical student's study at Syrian universities for more than six years and their subsequent emigration to work outside Syria a "financial loss."

Al-Araby Al-Jadeed

10\3\2023

How does the Syrian regime blackmail the United Nations into hiring relatives of its officials in its offices?

Mohsen Al-Mustafa, assistant researcher at the Omran Center for Strategic Studies and a fellow at the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy, revealed to Al-Araby Al-Jadeed that "Hussam Louka, director of the General Intelligence Directorate, has three children: Nouri, Natasha, and Satanay. While Nouri is pursuing his graduate studies in Russia, Natasha finished her studies in pharmacy and married the son of Ibrahim Othman, the head of the Syrian regime's Atomic Energy Commission. Satanay studied at the Higher Institute of Business Administration in Damascus." Al-Mustafa believes she will likely be employed by the United Nations office.

Local grapes

5\3\2023

Military militias lead the distribution of earthquake aid in Syria.

He pointed out that the Syrian regime forces were concentrated in their activity in the period immediately following the earthquake.

At the official level, the "army" participated in rescue operations and debris removal, and military hospitals received injured civilians for treatment.

Al-Istiqlal Newspaper

17\5\2022

Three Interpretations: Assad Appoints Sunni Defense Minister and Makes Structural Changes to His Forces

Mohsen Al-Mustafa, an assistant researcher at the Omran Center for Strategic Studies, believes that "the appointment of Major General Ali Mahmoud Abbas as Minister of Defense is illogical, as he is not the most senior of the three army brigades after General Ali Ayoub, especially since there are a large number of brigadier generals in the army who are more senior than him."

Local grapes

1\5\2022

A new defense minister "close" to the regime... Is it appropriate to appoint a general?

Mohsen al-Mustafa, a researcher at the Omran Center, linked Tlass's continued rule at the time to the Ba'ath coup and his assumption of the ministry before he reached his forties. Meanwhile, the regime's current positions are held by people aged 60 and over, due to the military hierarchy.

Local grapes

7\8\2022

Between two axes... the East swallows the West in Syria

Mohsen Al-Mustafa, assistant researcher at the Omran Center for Strategic Studies and a fellow at the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy, considered that the US distancing itself from the Syrian file on the military level over the past years cannot be considered an exclusion of America, which abandoned Ras al-Ain and Tal Abyad (northeast) in favor of Turkey, while not abandoning any areas in favor of Russia and Iran.

Al-Istiqlal Newspaper

15\6\2022

"Indirectly"... Does Assad have the cards to confront Türkiye's operation in northern Syria?

Mohsen al-Mustafa, assistant researcher for military affairs at the Omran Center for Strategic Studies, believes that "Assad received a warning conveyed via the Russians not to stand in the way of the Turkish army launching a military operation."

The Orient-The Day

30\4\2022

Bashar al-Assad appoints new defense minister

Muhsen adds, "Alawites derslea are attributed to the Omran army researcher, Moustafa-al. The Strategic Studies Center for other aspects of the division, with coordination and tifsadministra, on the treatment of public institutions, Abbas Mahmoud Ali.

Watan Podcast 01/03/2021

The Syrian presidential elections lack credibility and a majority of voters will not vote.

My participation in the Watan podcast to discuss the Syrian regime's presidential elections.

Homeland Podcast 28/10/2020

Syrian elections

My participation in the Watan podcast about the Syrian elections, to discuss the sham elections and the paper "Baath Democracy: The 2020 Elections and Approaches to Enshrining Article 8," which I published at the Omran Center for Strategic Studies.

Watan Podcast 12\08\2021

Assad forms his new government without radical changes

My participation in the Watan podcast to discuss the government formed by Bashar al-Assad after the presidential elections.