Research contributions, statements, and references

The EUAA report cites “The Chain of Command in the Syrian Military” and “The Syrian Regime Signals Legal and Military Shifts to the World” in its discussion of leadership appointments and the composition of senior military positions.

Referenced works: The Chain of Command in the Syrian Military: Formal and Informal Tracks؛ The Syrian Regime Signals Legal and Military Shifts to the World.

Researcher assistant Muhsen AlMustafa at the Omran Center for Studies provided the European Union Agency for Asylum (EUAA) with answers to several questions related to military service and the situation in Syria. These contributions were included in the agency’s report titled “Syria: Country Focus 2023,” with the research input first sent by email, followed by an online interview with the agency. The report also drew on several previously published studies.

The researcher assistant was recognized as one of the main sources in the report.

The report also made use of several previously published Articles

The report cites “Increasing Salaries: The Regime’s Policy Driving the Militarization of Society” in its discussion of price and wage increases and the effects of indirect taxation and inflation on incomes in Syria.

Referenced work: Salary Increases A Syrian Regime Policy Driving the Militarization of Society.

An ACCORD query response draws on an expert contribution provided by Muhsen AlMustafa by email on 1 September 2023. His input addresses enforcement of self-defence duty, the treatment and perception of people who refuse service, particularly Arabs, and the possible deployment of conscripts at the front. The response was published on 6 September 2023.

This ACCORD query response reuses an earlier expert contribution on border procedures for reservists returning to Syria, concerning the fifteen-day period for reporting to the recruitment office. The email was dated 29 May 2023 and had already been used in the response published on 14 June 2023 about registered reservists returning from abroad. Published on 5 September 2023, the present response is a separate document drawing on that earlier contribution.

Muhsen AlMustafa, a researcher assistant at the Omran Center for Strategic Studies, believes that Asma al-Assad is not the actual leader of the regime, but rather plays a role assigned to her by Bashar al-Assad in coordination with Maher al-Assad. He stresses that her task is to transfer money and build a new economic elite personally loyal to Bashar, Maher, and Hafez Jr., as part of a long-term project aimed at reshaping the regime’s power networks after the old ones, such as Rami Makhlouf, became exposed and vulnerable to Western sanctions.

AlMustafa adds that the economic council linked to Asma emerged due to the large number of files she manages and relies on assistants and multiple companies to evade sanctions. However, he clarifies that her influence is concentrated only in the economic sphere. The army and security remain almost entirely under the control of the Alawite elite, while positions such as the Ministry of Defense lack real influence, which confines Asma’s role to the economy, away from sovereign and military files.

Researcher Muhsen AlMustafa at the Omran Center for Strategic Studies told Enab Baladi that this step is partly driven by an attempt to ease the burden on social groups in regime-controlled areas, while ruling out at the same time that it carries messages to Arab countries, considering that the issue is closely tied to the level of manpower in the “army” forces.

According to the researcher, the issued order of demobilization and ending retention does not reflect full military stability as much as it expresses a state of “sufficiency” with the enlistment of new recruits. AlMustafa ruled out that large numbers of soldiers would benefit from the decision, since it is tied to conditions that do not apply to everyone, stressing that decisions related to the regime’s military institution are, nonetheless, real and consequential.

Muhsen AlMustafa contributed two expert emails to ACCORD on 29 and 31 May 2023 for a query response on registered reservists returning to Syria after an extended stay abroad. His input addresses security checks at entry, the period for reporting to recruitment offices, travel between areas controlled by different actors, and circumstances in which reservists might be detained or called up. The response was published on 14 June 2023.

Spanish

“Los sirios aquí son beneficiarios de un permiso de residencia temporal que les permite trabajar y acceder a los servicios públicos, como la sanidad y la educación. Pero no gozan del estatuto de refugiados reconocido en las convenciones internacionales”, explica Muhsen alMustafá, un investigador sirio del think tank Omran, basado en Estambul y creado por miembros de la oposición siria. Por esta razón, la comunidad sigue con preocupación el tono que ha adoptado la campaña de las elecciones presidenciales, sobre todo de cara a la segunda vuelta, que se celebrará el próximo domingo 28 de mayo.

En un contexto de crisis económica aguda, con la inflación oficial alrededor del 50% tras llegar al 85%, los refugiados sirios se han convertido en un caso de construcción de un chivo expiatorio de manual. “Los exiliados no son los culpables de la espiral inflacionaria en Turquía. Al contrario, contribuyen de forma positiva a la economía”, sostiene al Mustafá y recuerda que la mayoría de los refugiados lleva unos diez años en el país, pero la inflación solo se disparó en los últimos dos años como consecuencia de la guerra de Ucrania y las heterodoxas políticas monetarias del presidente Erdogan.

English

“Syrians here are beneficiaries of a temporary residence permit that allows them to work and access public services such as healthcare and education. But they do not enjoy refugee status as recognized in international conventions,” explained Muhsen AlMustafa, a researcher assistant at the Istanbul-based Omran think tank, founded by members of the Syrian opposition. For this reason, the community is following with concern the tone adopted in the presidential election campaign, especially ahead of the runoff scheduled for Sunday, May 28.

In the context of a severe economic crisis, with official inflation around 50% after having reached 85%, Syrian refugees have become a textbook case of scapegoating. “Exiles are not to blame for the inflationary spiral in Turkey. On the contrary, they contribute positively to the economy,” AlMustafa argued, recalling that most refugees have been in the country for about ten years, but inflation only skyrocketed in the last two years as a consequence of the war in Ukraine and President Erdogan’s unorthodox monetary policies.

Dutch

English

Now that Assad has discovered how important it is to them to stop the drugs trade to their countries, he can blackmail them with it. And he will, again and again, to try and get more benefits from them

Muhsen AlMustafa, a researcher assistant at the Omran Center for Strategic Studies and a former non-resident fellow at the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy, expects Erdogan’s current policy to continue if he wins the elections, noting that “voluntary return operations may increase due to the economic crisis and the repercussions of the earthquake,” as he told Syria Direct.

AlMustafa believes that Kilicdaroglu’s talk about withdrawing from Syria is merely electoral promises and does not represent a real political plan, saying: “They make promises for the sake of elections, and when one of them comes to power, they will face reality,” pointing out that “the army and intelligence will not accept losing these advantages derived from military operations; it is a matter of national security.”

French

Croyez-moi, si je pouvais rentrer en Syrie, je le ferais

English

Provide statements on the issue of Syrian refugees in Lebanon